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ELLSWORTH — Preliminary figures are in for the
2004 Maine lobster catch, and at first glance
they look remarkably good for a year that was a
bit of a roller coaster ride for fishermen. In
short, the recorded catch was 63.1 million
pounds; up from 55 million pounds in 2003 and
just shy of the record 63.6 million pounds
landed in 2002.
In that
comparison, it looks as though 2004 was a
successful season, but there’s more to the story
than strait numbers can tell.
The Department
of Marine Resources, which compiles the landings
data from lobster dealer reports, is warning
that the figures for 2004 are oranges when
compared to the apples of preceding years’
numbers. Comparing apples to oranges is a
proverbial nonstarter for statistical analysis.
According to
Heidi Bray, who handles data for all commercial
fish landings, the difference springs from
changes to lobster dealer reporting requirements
in 2004. For the first time, reporting was
mandatory, she said. On top of that, it was the
first year when retail lobster dealers, as well
as wholesalers, were included in the data. All
that adds up to a marked increase in the number
of reports coming in.
In the interest
of policing and managing the state’s lobster
stocks, the increased reporting will give a more
complete account of the number of lobsters
removed from state waters annually. However, for
a few years, the change will mean direct
comparison to previous seasons isn’t useful.
In spite of that
limitation, the preliminary 2004 figures do tell
a story of relative prosperity during the season
just past.
Hancock
County weighed in with a total of 13.9 million pounds landed. But that’s
significantly behind the Knox and Waldo
counties’ combined figure of 22.3 million
pounds, the highest landings for any of the
reporting counties. To the east
Washington
County, lobstermen landed a total of 7.7 million pounds in 2004.
In terms of
dollars brought in to the Maine economy by
lobster sales in 2004, the total stands at
$253.5 million.
Hancock County brought in $58.6
million of that figure.
Looking at the
monthly data, it’s understandable why lobstermen
were concerned about the strength of the season
in late summer. It wasn’t until August that the
catch for Hancock
County broke the one million-pound mark. But the following months indicate why
the season can be seen as a success. September
and October landings in
Hancock
County brought in excess of $11 million each month. November dropped down to
$10.2 million and even December bought $4.3
million.
Hancock
County lobstermen averaged $4.10 per pound for the season, just slightly higher
than the state average of $4 per pound. However,
even that return is significantly higher than
the 2003 state average of $3.70 per pound.
In an effort to
come up with a useful comparison of total catch
between the last two years, Bray said the 2004
landings were actually down by about 10 percent
from the 2003 total if you only use data from
dealers who reported both years.
However, there’s
more analysis to be done on that front, she
said. First, she’s got to get all the 2004 data
in. The reason the figures currently released by
the department are preliminary is that only 78
percent of licensed lobster dealers in the state
have reported. While a number of those licensed
dealers might not have done any business in
lobster last year, Bray said, there will be some
that did, and their figures will be added to the
totals.
Because this is
the first year of mandatory reporting, the
department has the opportunity to enforce the
requirement. Bray said the simplest tool that
will be used to bring in missing data is
non-renewal of dealer licenses for anyone who
hasn’t reported from the previous year. With
2005 licenses required by April 1, the
department had good leverage for any delinquent
dealers who intend to continue in the business. |
